《景观设计学》2021年第6期作 者：蒋理（JIANG Li），王逸（WANG Yi），Kelly Leilani MAIN等类 别：景观出 版 社：高等教育出版社有限公司出版时间：2021年12月
Climate Adaptation and Resilience, by Yu Kongjian
据《巴黎协定》所设定的目标，为了避免造成严重后果，全球气温升幅较工业化前水平必须控制在2℃以内，并向将升幅控制在1.5℃以内的目标努力。为此，必须在2050年前实现碳中和。然而，根据大自然保护协会（The Nature Conservancy）的测算，即使全球政府和企业已经采取了加快向清洁能源转型、提高能源利用效率的相关减排行动，我们也难以实现2℃的温控目标，更无从奢谈1.5℃。但具有讽刺意义的是，近年来，全世界在气候领域的绝大部分投资都投向了此类节能减排技术，却几乎忽视了基于自然的减排途径—如果动员及时，那么经济的、基于自然的减排途径（保护、恢复和改良全球森林，湿地和农业用地的土地管理行动）有望在2017~2030年间贡献37%的减排量，将全球气温升幅保持在2℃以下。
根据峰会报告，气候相关的灾难在过去三年中给全球造成了6 500亿美元的损失，超过了此间全球GDP的0.25%；而且预计到2100年时，如果全球气温上升2℃，将可能带来高达69万亿美元的损失~。地球的气候韧性投资每提高1美元，便可以为其他方面节省6美元。联合国环境规划署（UNEP）2021年发布的《气候适应差距报告》指出，2019年，仅发展中国家每年的气候适应成本就高达约796亿美元；2030年时，这一数字将升至1 400~3 000亿美元，2050年将达到2 800~5 000亿美元。这些天文数字告诉我们，建设具有气候韧性的人居环境需要付出多大的努力；也告诉我们，基于自然、适应自然的建设途径具有多大的潜力！
The international community has made great efforts over the past decades to cope with global climate change via two major countermeasures: carbon emission reduction and adaptation. At present, the world’s most attention is attached to carbon emission reduction or carbon neutrality. As more violent floods engulf roads and houses, stronger fire disasters rage across forests, more droughty weather steals harvests from farmers, and harsher urban heat waves threaten lives, we come to realize that carbon emission reduction helps little stop climate change. We are in urgent need to address climate change from a new perspective. As Climate Adaptation Summit 2021 (the Summit hereafter), the first of its kind hosted by the United Nations, held online on January 25 and 26, the international community shifted to the approaches of adaptation, since “adaptation cannot be the neglected half of the climate equation”.
The Paris Agreement highlighted the exigency of “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels” to significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. To this end, humans need to take efforts for the goal of carbon neutrality by 2050. However, predicted by The Nature Conservancy, governments and enterprises across the globe to date have been focused on accelerating the transition to clean energy and improving energy efficiency, yet the corresponding action “still lags far behind what is necessary to keep the planet below 2 °C threshold of warming, and nowhere near what is required to stay below the 1.5 °C target”. Ironically, such mitigation projects have made up the vast majority of global total climate finance in last decades, while nature-based mitigation approached have been neglected. If mobilized in time, the research points out that cost-effective natural climate solutions—conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands—can offer 37% of mitigation needed between 2017 and 2030 to keep global temperature rise below 2 °C.
The Summit reported that over the past three years, climate-related disasters have cost the world USD 650 billion, more than 0.25 percent of global GDP for those years, and the costs of damages from warming in 2100 for 2 °C will be USD 69 trillion~. An assessment figures out that “for every dollar invested in climate resilient infrastructure, six dollars can be saved”. Adaptation Gap Report 2021 by United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) notes that climate finance flows to developing countries (for both mitigation and adaptation) reached USD 79.6 billion in 2019. It is estimated that the annual costs of adaptation in developing countries could be USD 140 ~ 300 billion by 2030 and 280 ~ 500 billion by 2050. These astonishing figures signify the huge potential of and enormous efforts required in building a climate-resilient living environment through nature-based and nature-adapted approaches!
Against this background, nature-based green infrastructures and climate-adaptive sponge cities are receiving unprecedented attention. UNEP, governments, and major banks across the globe start to put forward climate adaptation measures and actions. The concept of Sponge City that has distinctive Chinese characteristics become particularly a widely-discussed interest among international researchers and practitioners over the past few years. There are over 10 million pieces of Google search results of “sponge city,” almost twice that of “Confucius.” Major banks, including World Bank, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, have set about investing in nature-based climate adaptation infrastructures such as sponge cities and ecological infrastructures. Over the past two years, I have delivered eight lectures on nature-based climate adaptation, sponge city, and sponge planet upon the invitation from above banks.
When it comes to implementation, we have to question the ideas or actions that are widely accepted or even “advanced” as so called. For instance, scientific knowledge proves that forests and wetlands are effective for mitigation of climate change, but existing regulations forbid to plant trees within the management areas of river courses (as trees could hinder flood drainage); It evidences that the combination of forest- and field-crops helps boost agricultural production (which is particularly true for eco-agriculture sites suffering from the loss of habitat diversity), which is also illegal under regulations such as tree planting and pond digging are not allowed in the permanent prime farmland. As a result, wetlands or floodplain forests that can contribute to climate adaptation and runoff regulation are being erased from river courses. Also, wetlands that help regulate droughts and floods and intercept and purify non-point-source polluted water bodies are being eliminated in farmlands, along with the disappear of wildlife habitats and biodiversity that are key to keeping ecological equilibrium. According to the Second Survey on National Wetlands, in China, the area of natural wetland reduced by 3,376,200 hectares, a nearly 10% dropping from 2009 to 2013. The field investigation in Anhui, Chongqing, and Yunnan made by researchers from Peking University, led by the author, showed that ponds and pond wetlands in China’s rural areas and farmlands reduced by approximately 30%. Consequently, China’s climate adaptation capacity is dwindling, causing huge losses.
Therefore, collaborative design with experts from the fields of Geography, Agriculture, Hydraulic Engineering, and Civil Engineering is required to develop resilient climate-adaptive green infrastructures by scientifically and systematically leveraging the power of nature. This poses great challenges and opportunities for landscape architects.
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